Who Are The Buyers Right Now?

Warren Buffet said he would like to buy thousands of single family homes.  Why?  Simply put they are a great investment deal right now.  Did he do it?  I don't know but I am sure Berkshire Hathaway didn't just jump into the real estate brokerage business this year for no reason.

In June the Berkshire name replaced Prudential in Florida and recently did so in Newport Beach, CA.

So Who Are The Buyers?

On the buyer side, investors appear to be the main buyers right now.  They are buying the houses that need work, but the prices are rising due to the competition among investors.  For instance, a recent waterfront in my area sold for $1.835 Million and was torn down, several over the sumer sold at or very close to that price only to be knocked down.  

A very nice home just around the corner, is listed at $2.4 Million and can't get even a low ball offer.  It has been on the market for over two years.  Another is listed for nearly $3 Million and as far as I know, also has no offers.

Can you really build a home and make money in that gap?  The answer is yes.  A really good investor can build for $400,000 making a total investment of $2.235, and sell for $2.3 and net $50,000 or so after interest and fees but that isn't what they are doing.  Most of them are only putting 10% of their money into the project so making $50,000 on $200,000 or even $400,000 in one year wouldn't be bad, and again that isn't what most that I talk to are doing.

What they are doing is building very slowly, taking advantage of lower labor and materials costs, locking in a good loan rate and sitting on the homes waiting for prices to go up.  Some have a sign on them, others don't.  One trick to look for as a seller is them dragging out the escrow for as long as possible to minimize their holding costs.

Maybe I am seeing more of this as an investor because I have trained myself to spot an empty house three blocks away.  I used to look for the dumpy empty homes, but now I am watching the newly remodeled empty homes.  This is how you get a micro glut.  When prices to recover to 2006 levels many of these homes will hit the market and stall pricing.  That isn't a bad thing, just something to be careful of when buying, and something you can use to your advantage if you don't want a fixer.

Are you ready to buy? 

Is A 4% Home Loan A Good Deal?

It is amazing how many people think rates will keep dropping.  Personally, I think the printing press economics of the Obama administration are going to catch up with stagflation like we saw in the late 70's and early 80's.  I think that Obama is handing his replacement a bigger economic mess than Carter handed Reagan. 

So is 4% a good deal?  If you are in investor, the question is can you make money with it?  Or can you sit on the property until you can?  If you are a home buyer the real question is, can you afford the payment?  If you can answer yes, then 4% is a good deal.

As a Real Estate investor and agent, anything below 4% is a smoking deal when it comes to financing real estate.  Why?  Inflation has been historically calculated at 3% per year.  Since the loan is fixed at 4%, as the home increases in value, the money is essentially free after just a couple of years.  On a 4% loan, nearly half of the payment is going directly to the principle.  You don't get much of a tax deduction but you get a great savings account in your house.  It might even be tax free or tax deferred.

I bought my home at 4% and refinanced at 3.25% a year later.  I did it because if rates went up to just 4.5% I couldn't get the loan for my house.  Remember the late 70's and early 80's?  If you don't, loan rates jumped from 8% to 14% and peaked right at 18%. 

The trick to surviving in the real estate game is to leave some wiggle room.  When money was really easy to borrow from 2004 to 2006 home prices went up based on greed, not economics.  People bought what they couldn't afford on the assumption they could use their home like an ATM and just keep taking money out to keep up with the bills.  Bad plan.

Think of it this way.  If you have a home with a $1000 monthly payment, over $400 is being used to pay down the loan on a 4% loan.  If you had the same loan at 8%, you would have a $1480 monthly payment that still only paid $400 of your loan that first month.  When prices go up or interest goes up, rents usually follow.  If you get transferred in just two years, and rates climb to 6%, the chances are good you can rent the house out for a nice profit.

At 4%, a $200,000 home only needs to rent for $600 a month to cover your real expenses.  Remember, the other $400 is buying you a house.  Think of it as a forced savings account.  If you can afford it, historically it is much better than a savings account.  If you rent it for $1000 per month meaning you have zero cash flow, you are still growing your equity at $400 per month plus the increase in the home value.  That is free wealth.  After five or ten years if you can rent it for $1200, then they are buying you a home and you are getting $200 a month for letting them do it.

So is 4% a good deal?  That is all up to you and your goals.

The Big SECRET Of Buying A Foreclosure

With all of the information on the internet about buying a foreclosure, you wouldn't think there are any secrets left would you?  Now I have to ask, If there aren't any secrets, how come everybody isn't buying foreclosed houses at half price and getting rich?  There must be a secret to buying foreclosures.

Easy access to information online and a subtle change in the market have made for an interesting real estate market.  Right now many people are  getting information about foreclosures online without understanding what it means.  They look at NOD, REO and Foreclosure listings on sites like RealtyTrac.com and many consider them the same thing.  The first part of the secret to buying a foreclosure is understanding what these things are.

Last year the market was very different.  Stocks were up so investors were staying in the stock market.  One day, Warren Buffet says he would like to own thousands of single family homes and then investors started throwing money at real estate again.

At least once a week I get a call or a lead from a website that starts the conversation with "I want to buy one of those million dollar foreclosures for four hundred thousand that I saw on somecrazyforeclosuresite.com", when can I get one, and oh by the way it needs to be stunning, with a three car garage and ocean views."  Do those "foreclosure deals" exist is what they should be asking.

Under the right conditions, I can help you get one of those houses if you are ready to make a wholesale buy.  Otherwise, you might pay eight hundred thousand for a home that someone else paid over a million for.  The conversation then goes to NOD's and Pre-Foreclosures.  Everyone wants a deal and they think the deals are everywhere and they are for everyone.

Unlike most other markets, real estate presents a different level of risk.  Especially when it comes to speculation.   I usually start  with  "So, do you invest in stocks?" most of the time the answer is "Why?".  I then ask "Do you borrow money for investing in stocks on margin?"  That is usually followed by a puzzled look or silence on the phone.

When you buy a foreclosure site unseen and ask the bank to invest money, that is exactly what you are doing.  Right now, banks aren't really happy doing that kind of loan.  That is what "hard money" is for.

So what does all of this mean to you, and what is the Secret?

I said the first part of the Secret is understanding the terms.

1. NOD - Notice of Default - This is not a foreclosure.  All the filing of an NOD means is the banks told the homeowner that they aren't paying their mortgage and the bank would like their money.  They are also filing a copy at the county recorders office so they can eventually maybe someday start the actual foreclosure process.

Most of the NOD's filed are for people who are trying to get a better deal from their bank.  It is a tactic used to negotiate a reduction on the loan.

At this point about 1 out of 80 homes that get an NOD end up on the market, as a short sale, and at least a dozen agents will call in the first two weeks to get the listing.

2. Pre-Foreclosure.  This is where the home is easier to read.  By this point it is either for sale as a short sale and the owners are making an effort to get out, or they are running a gamble to see if the bank will go all the way to foreclosure.  The grey starts getting a little more black and white.  Picking up a house in this area that isn't already listed is highly unlikely.  I would put the odds in the 1000:1 range that you could convince an owner and a bank to sell you the house at a great price during this phase.

3. Foreclosure Auction Date Set - Well not really.  Even when the "auction date" is set a deal can be made and the home won't make it to auction or it can be delayed.

4. Foreclosure Auction - This is the cash only auction on the courthouse steps, not the auction at auction.com or Williamsauction.com.  Investors and banks bid for the house on that day.

At the auction there are two outcomes.  1. The bank bids to keep it or 2. An investors bids for it.

In the first case, this is where every agent that has a relationship with the bank scrambles to get the listing.  If the house is in good shape, the banks will clean it up to FHA standards and try to sell it at a "retail" price.  The home is good enough to get a loan on.

If the house is a dump, the bank then assigns a "wholesale" price, which is what investors are looking for. The house won't qualify for a "standard" or "FHMA compliant" bank loan.  You need cash or very expensive "hard money".  Unless you have a lot of time on your hands and are a good contractor, it is tough to get in as a wholesale buyer.

This is where the confusion is.  A lot of people think that they should be able to get a "normal" home loan and buy a house "as-is" and fix it up.   The reality right now is that banks are not allowed to, nor do they want to accept this risk.  The bank doesn't want to get the dump back and go through all of this again.  It is expensive.

This is where information without understanding is a problem.  People spend dozens of hours scouring sites to get a "deal",  and then they call an agent because they don't understand that buying wholesale houses is a business, not a hobby.  If you are going to borrow "hard money" at very high interest rates, you have to be dead on your budget and flip the house quick or get a good tenant in there fast.

Bursting The Bubble.

So now the big answer.  There isn't a secret.  When you see an investor make $5,000, $50,000 or even $500,000 on a deal, they didn't just work that deal.  They likely worked hundreds or even thousands of deals and offers to make some good money.  The more they practice, the better they get.  Like Art Williams says, they "Do It" a lot.

The big risk is that you might not make money for a while.  Day trading, you might make money in an hour, with home flipping or investing in can take weeks or years.  When you leverage with other peoples money. The upside percentages can be phenomenal and the downside can be devastating.

That isn't to say you shouldn't buy Real Estate.  There are always great deals once you learn the business, and with interest rates under 4% I feel strongly that it is time to buy.  Last year when I posted that the market had bottomed in Orange County along the coast, I dove in head first and bought the most expensive house I could afford at a short sale. 

So how can you put this market to work for you?

If you have the patience, the best way to come close to a wholesale deal is to buy a short sale.  A short sale means that you are going to buy the house for less than the bank is owed for it.  The average in Orange County CA is just under 300 days right now from open to close on a short sale.  Nationally it was 308 days last month.  That is why you need patience.  As a general rule, the closer you are to the amount owed, the faster the sale happens.

The bottom line is if you need to move anytime soon and are using the banks money, my advice is find the best house you can afford and be happy.  If you have some time and would like to trade that time for equity while hoping the loan rates don't jump up, take a shot at a short.  Finally if you have cash and aren't a professional investor, buy wholesale very carefully with an agent who has been an investor themselves.

Happy Hunting.

Overwhelmed by Real Estate and Don't Know Where to Start?

Sitting out on the balcony at a nice resort after a weekend of Real Estate Investing seminars is a very refreshing break.  After two full days of listing to people talk about how to be a better investor and talking with several people about their investments I am glad to just be sitting alone with my thoughts on the balcony.

Once in a while people will walk by and look up, probably wondering why I am not at the bar or out at the pool, but other than those few wandering souls it is pretty quiet up here.

Having been “investors” part time for nearly 20 years, my wife and I decided to step it up a little this year and put more money where my mouth is.  On Beach Street News, I called the bottom of the Orange County Market just after buying my current home.  From what I heard over the last two days, Phoenix and Las Vegas also appear to have bottomed.  This is great news for everyone.

We came here to learn how to “wholesale” property.  Wholesaling means that I find property really really cheap I do all the negotiating and get a contract on the property.  I find property that nobody else wants because they can’t figure out it’s value or it has been marketed wrong.  

Next,  I use my marketing skills to reach out and find buyers that want to make 15% on their money and have it secured by real estate.  I make somewhere between 5% and 12% on the deal.  My buyer is still getting a smoking cheap property, and I help them with the fix up, rental and maybe even find them a property manager.

If you are asking “How do I buy one of those deals from you?” the answer is simple, send me an e-mail with how much cash you can come up with and when, and I’ll build the deal.  No financing just cash.  As the old saying goes, “Cash is King”.  Banks and distressed owners don’t want any risk in the deal if they are going to let the property go at a 35%-50% discount from retail value.  You gotta have cash.

Many of the people here were seasoned investors so I learned some new methods I had never heard.  I also saw some wide eyed people who were totally overwhelmed by the whole idea of having to buy and sell a property in 14 days in this market.  Some didn’t even own their own home and had no idea about title, escrow, attorneys and agency fees.

The guy hosting the seminar was Dean Graziosi, the de-facto king of Real Estate Informercials.  As hard as Dean tried to cater to all levels at this event, there was a small group of about 15% who were totally overwhelmed and lost.  One lady even lost a small fortune using a competitors “system” which was a joke the way she explained it to us.  

I am sure at least one person is wondering why I would pay an infomercial guy to learn about investing in real estate.  I met Dean about a year ago at an event not related to Real Estate and was impressed with him as a genuine expert, and more importantly as someone who wanted to see the people who paid him succeed.  I felt like he was a guy who could help my wife and those who are close enough to me that I can’t teach them.  So I bought a small program that included tickets to the event which also let my wife start learning more on Dean’s website.  This afternoon, it was clear that Dean was a little disappointed to see how many people at this event had read the books and never “done a deal”.  

My wife is very keen to these things from her 18 years of class room teaching experience and introduced or pointed out several people who were clearly stunned over the weekend.  Noticing that isn’t easy in a room of 200 or more people.  I really didn’t want to speak at all during the event and was able to keep my appearances on the microphone down to one.

At the end of today I snuck out a little early to enjoy the resort pool and while I was working on my sunburn, I realized that I should have got on the microphone one more time.  I laid there thinking that I might be able to help the people who where still in shock.  They all had the same problem.  They needed a “simple” place to start.  Something that would take the pressure of the 14 day wholesale deal off of their shoulders.  To Dean and the other Pros, this was easy stuff.  Enough people got it to the point that it felt easy across most of the room, but not all of the room.

What I needed to say was this:

Keep in mind that every investor in here started with just one deal.  Wholesaling is not how Dean started.  I personally haven’t yet wholesaled a deal, and as an agent, I may never be able to wholesale a single family home.  Luckily the commissions are about the same as the “spread” on a wholesale deal, so I just need buyers ready to jump.

What I did, what Dean did and what many people in the room did, was start with one deal on one property.  In fact, I think we all started out purchasing a place that we lived in, fixed up and later rented.  Chad, the youth pastor with the “Buy and Hold” strategy started there and stayed there.

If you don’t own a home today, before you even become and investor, I would say go buy a home.  Find a Realtor like Kelly and go buy a government owned home in the 14 day window where investors can’t get it.  Start with a deal there.  If you own a home, even better.  Rent the house you live in and go buy another home with little or no down through one of the government foreclosure programs like Homepath.com.

Start with your house and your first rental.  Even if you get a Homepath house, you only have to live in it for a short while before you can go get another one.  When you have one home and one rental, you are learning lessons of business, property management and real estate investing the way Dean, Chad and I all learned it. 

The big difference is you can read about our headaches in Deans books so you at least know what to expect and how to avoid most of them.  With that experience, you are ready to come to a seminar like this weekend's E.D.G.E and start learning more advanced methods of presenting offers and doing deals faster.

Start with your house, and your first rental.  Use a Realtor As soon as you have done that, you are a real estate investor without any doubt.  You’ll know it, I’ll know it, Dean will know it.  You might not be any good at it yet, but now you have experiences to help you ask the questions and really learn from the pros here.  You can really step on the gas and accelerate your learning curve at an event like this if you know how to use it.  Until you do at least the first deal, it might all be jargon, gibberish and $2500 out of your account.

Read the books, buy a house, then buy another and rent the first, and you have just done what took me 3 years to do in less than a year.  Do that and next year, this event will be fun and you will learn a lot more, and be even better the year after. 

If you are dead broke, I mean really have no money, find someone in this room who lives in your city and intern with them on a per deal commission basis.  Learn how to “bird dog” one deal for them.  The first one will take time, and you won’t make much money.  The second will go faster, the third even faster.  After they have paid you for bird dogging three deals help them find buyers.  After you have helped them find 5 buyers.  GO DO IT FOR YOURSELF.

If you commit right now to doing one of those two things. Better yet if you commit to doing BOTH of them, when you get here next year, I guarantee you will be having a lot more fun, and making a lot more money.  

It is your choice.  What do you want to say when you are here next year?  “I did nothing” or “I helped Kelly with three deals, helped her get 5 buyers, bought a house and bought my first rental and now I make $200 a month more than I did last year.”  

You can’t even walk across the street unless you take the first step.  Start walking.

Maybe next year I’ll grab the microphone just one more time and say it, that is unless I am too busy making deals on my iPhone to leave the beach.

The Sub $1Million Bottom in Orange County Real Estate?

Lately we have seen a couple of interesting trends.  Homes that are below $1 Million and priced right are selling relatively quickly.  This  means banks are lending and closing.  This is a big difference after last year where 50% of the "Approved" buyers couldn't get funded and didn't close.  It was making agents crazy.  All that work and no commission.

Buyers were having fun either and many just gave up after one try.  Personally I had five "pre approved" loans when I made the offer on my house.  Three of the five cancelled my approval after the 17 day contingency period leaving me to lose my deposit.  Thankfully two kept moving forward, and yes I paid fees to all five of them.

At the very last second, the bank I was about to sign with backed out.  At the end of the day only one lender stuck it out and closed the deal.  My wife and I were not the listing or selling agents on the deal, and I can tell you that poor woman called almost every week to see if the banks were still going to loan.

The difference between me getting the house and the people that didn't close that month was simple.  I didn't quit when the first bank said "No".  Quitting isn't how you get a deal on a house, or any other kind of deal for that matter.

These days the above $1.0 Million homes are still soft, even if they are priced right.  When I say soft, they are closing more than last year, but they are sitting unless they are priced very low.  The spread between wholesale foreclosures/short sales and retail in the sub $1 Million home priced in Orange County and LA County is narrowing.  The $1.0 Million plus market is getting a little wider.  My guess is people are holding out longer and getting into more trouble, and banks don't want to dump those jumbo loans.

Sunday the L.A. Times had a pretty good chart that showed LA county was seeing a similar change.  Homes that were hit the hardest in areas like Lancaster were starting to see a little rebound.  The water front homes of Long Beach and Manhattan Beach were still falling although in single digits now indicating we are near a bottom.

I want to use a little caution here and say this isn't a "demand" bottom, rather it is an inflationary bottom.  What that means is that houses are just following the increasing prices of everything else.  While the Fed is still loaning money at record low interest rates, they are also printing it at record rates.  That is the real definition of inflation, more money available without an increase in supply of goods equals inflation.

That inflation is what we are seeing right now, and the benefit to the housing market is that the loans are worth less as the house prices follow inflation upward.  If the home market falls at 5% relative to the previous year and there is 5% inflation, the result is no change in home prices.  This looks good for the president in the short run, but sets us up for double digit inflation in the next couple of years.  Look back at the Carter-Reagan years.  Remember 18% home loans?

The second interesting trend reported by the National Association of Realtors last week was a significant drop in the number of "low ball" cash offers.  Another indicator that we have hit bottom and the cash buyers are looking for a different kind of deal.

Of course the banks still hold the wild card with over one million homes in the foreclosure process at some stage.  I don't imagine they will dump all of these homes at once.  Instead as the new foreclosure rates decline, they will start releasing a few homes for sale.  That is exactly what we are seeing in Orange County right now.

What is going on in your part of the state?

Orange County California Property Tax Collection Trouble?

A little birdie told me there is an impending problem in California.  This isn't about the foreclosures the banks are holding on to, but rather the bellwether that something else is about to happen.

It turns out California County tax collectors have a couple of problems this year.  First is that property values have fallen.  The lawmakers still hungover from the party, some still drunk from all the years of double digit real estate value increases are now crying the blues and asking for tax hikes.  Their mismanagement of money is our problem somehow.  For years, flippers where the states best friends, bidding up homes and driving up tax revenues.  The cities, counties and the state just sat back and spent like a college kid with a new credit card.

Now things are changing.  And the state is blaming the banking and real estate industry.  The politicians spent the money, not the bankers and real estate industry.

 The obvious thing is that home values are falling, and every time a home sells, so falls with it the income to the state, city and county tax collector.

What isn't obvious is the number of delinquent property tax bills.  This isn't easy information to dig up and compile without spending a lot of money.  It turns out someone did in Orange County California (where I live) and the numbers aren't good.

As the number of homes in tax default increases, the number of foreclosures are not far behind.  This is double jeopardy for the tax collectors and the honest tax payers.  Somebody still has to pay for all of those schools, roads, firemen and police.  It is tough to say out loud but a lot of people took pay cuts and lost jobs.  The government sector is going to have to own up soon.  Raising taxes won't fix anything.  There aren't enough "rich" to solve the problem.  It just sounds great on TV to "tax the rich".

Some areas of government can be cut temporarily but my source tells me this isn't an increase that represents a temporary problem, and the government has a very hard time cutting services at any level.

What does that mean for investors and agents?  It means keep an eye out for deals.  The banks have proven they are terrible at selling homes profitably, and the tax collectors don't have much experience either.  The worst case scenario is some back door deals or government giveaway that drags the entire market down further.

Like all crisis there is opportunity if you know what to look for.  This one is one that you can see coming which makes it an excellent opportunity for investors who can afford a buy and hold, buy and rent or are also contractors that can do very inexpensive work for a potential buy and flip.  The buy and flip will be pretty thin for the next 12-24 months as this settles out.  Banks won't keep letting people live in a home for free so deals will be out there.  Banks just got fined with a huge payout to the states, which some states are going to skim from to make up for the tax loses, further complicating the ongoing mortgage problem

As funny as it sounds, banks and the county offices need the help of experienced real estate agents, investors and speculators now more than ever.  That is really hard to admit for people who think the government should run everything.  As they realize the need for help and the need to cut budgets, look for some smoking deals to get put together at every level.

In every crisis there is opportunity.  This next 24 months is going to be a big one.